With Chinese and South Korean tech stocks surging on Friday to kick off 2026 strong for global capital markets, next week will mark the first full trading week of the new year. Key US employment data and a year-end tech sector rally are set to ignite traders' trading enthusiasm.
For the S&P 500 index, which has been failing to break through the 7,000-point mark since the end of October last year, next week's US December non-farm payroll report will set the tone for the first wave of market activity in the new year. Two weeks ago, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released supplementary non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000 jobs in November, but a decrease of 105,000 jobs in October, which is the largest drop since the end of 2020 .
Since the second half of last year, the US job market has cooled significantly, with net job losses occurring in half of the months. If the downturn in the US labor market continues, the Federal Reserve may have to implement more substantial interest rate cuts.
The current range for the U.S. federal funds rate is 3.5% to 3.75%. Most officials currently believe that the so-called "neutral rate" is around 3% , which corresponds to two more 25-basis-point rate cuts in this rate-cutting cycle.
Speaking of the Federal Reserve, there is another uncertainty: Trump will announce his nominee for the next Fed chair in January, but the exact timing is still unclear.
Next week, major economies outside the US will see a wave of PMI and CPI data releases. Preliminary December inflation figures for France and Germany are scheduled for Tuesday, while data for the entire Eurozone will be released on Wednesday. For the European Central Bank, which is already in a "good position," these data are unlikely to affect expectations that it will not cut interest rates in the coming months.
Regarding individual stocks, the next round of US earnings season won't start until JPMorgan Chase. The financial results will be officially unveiled on January 13th, during this relatively quiet period, when Jefferies, Tilray, and Fast Retailing will release their latest financial reports.
For the global technology sector, next week will see the big opening show of the year: consumer electronics. The exhibition will be held from CES 2026 to the 6th. However, Nvidia and other companies will also be present. Technology leaders, including CEO Jensen Huang and AMD CEO Lisa Su, will deliver keynote speeches on January 5th (Tuesday morning to early morning Beijing time) . Alibaba Asian tech giants such as Lenovo, Samsung Electronics, and LG will be showcasing their products in Las Vegas. This is related to Intel. The first "18A" chip, which will determine the fate of the foundry business, will also be unveiled at that time.
According to publicly available information, several companies will showcase home robots at this year's CES. AI glasses New products such as wearable devices have attracted considerable attention from the capital market. How manufacturers are responding to the surge in memory prices for laptops and PCs will also be a hot topic next week.
In addition, the unexpected events this weekend have added another major geopolitical event to next week's schedule. According to the latest news before publication, the United States launched a military operation against Venezuela on Saturday, and the plane carrying Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife Flores, who were arrested during the operation, has arrived in New York. Earlier reports indicated that Maduro might appear in federal court in New York on the 5th, but this arrangement may change.
Meanwhile, there is absolutely no clue how the situation will develop within Venezuela.
The bigger problem lies with Trump. This US president, known for challenging the boundaries of American law, is now challenging the UN Charter .
According to Article 2, paragraph 4 of the Charter of the United Nations, no Member State shall, in its international relations, use the threat or force or any other means inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations, to infringe upon the territorial integrity or political independence of any Member State or State.
The US president not only launched a military operation against Venezuela and arrested the country's head of state, but also announced that he would temporarily "govern" the country.
Therefore, Trump is currently facing dual pressure from the international community and within the United States. Given that Trump didn't even notify Congress before taking action, he also needs to explain whether this move violated the U.S. Constitution.
Overview of key financial events next week (Beijing time)
Monday (January 5): South Korean President Lee Jae-myung pays a state visit to China from January 4 to 7.
Tuesday (January 6): Eurozone December PMI data, US December S&P Global PMI data. Final PMI reading, December CPI for France/Germany, and the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (until the 9th).
Wednesday (January 7): Eurozone December CPI, US December ADP Employment Change, US November JOLTs Job Openings
Thursday (January 8): US October wholesale sales data, US October trade balance
Friday (January 9): China's December CPI, the US December Non-Farm Payrolls Report, and the opening of the Silicon Valley Auto Show.
(Article source: CLS)
