On Sunday evening (November 9) local time, the U.S. Senate passed the debate process for the "Continuing Resolution" by a vote of 60 to 40, marking the near end of the 40-day federal government shutdown.
Upon returning to the White House that evening, US President Trump stated, "It looks like we're very close to ending the shutdown. You'll soon find out."
This "continuing resolution" adds three long-term budget bills, known as the "minibus," to the House bill and extends government funding authorization until the end of January next year. As a key part of the negotiations, the plan also makes concessions to Democrats, agreeing to a vote in December on a proposal to extend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credit.
Matt Gertken, chief U.S. political strategist at global investment consultancy BCA, told CBN reporters that if the government shutdown continues into the Thanksgiving holiday travel rush, flight delays and public discontent could erupt. From a political perspective, it's almost impossible to allow the shutdown to extend into Thanksgiving week. Meanwhile, with the Democrats' consecutive victories in local elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and California, internal pressure on the Republican Party is mounting, making them eager to resolve the deadlock as soon as possible.
“However, this budget standoff won’t disappear completely. If the issue of healthcare subsidies isn’t fundamentally resolved, Congress may need to discuss it again before Christmas,” he said.
Agreement terms and disagreements within the Democratic Party
According to the text of the continuing resolution released by the Senate Appropriations Committee, funding for most government agencies will be extended until January 30, 2026. This arrangement covers continuing funding for most non-essential federal operations, aiming to avoid another shutdown. Among the three additional year-long appropriations bills, some agencies will receive full-year funding covering the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, including the Department of Agriculture, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Department of Veterans Affairs, military construction projects, and Congressional operating funds.
In exchange for Democrats agreeing to end the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune pledged to push for a Senate vote in mid-December on extending ACA subsidies, which were originally set to expire at the end of the year. Democrats will also have the power to decide the version of the extension bill submitted for a vote.
The agreement also stipulates the rescission of over 4,000 federal employee layoff notices initiated during the shutdown and explicitly prohibits any "layoff actions" before January 30, 2026. The employment status of all laid-off employees will be retroactive to September 30, 2025, and they will receive back pay. The bill also ensures that public servants forced to take leave receive full compensation and requires federal agencies to submit written reports to Congress regarding the rescission of layoffs and the payment of back pay.
This is a setback for the US government. Previously, Russell Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), had expressed a desire to lay off up to 10,000 federal employees to control spending. In response, Bobby Kogan, a former OMB official and now a fellow at the Center for American Progress, commented: “This is a major turning point. The government is finally starting to protect workers, rather than punish them.”
While the agreement creates the conditions for ending the shutdown, strong opposition remains within the Democratic Party. Senate Minority Leader Schumer stated, "The healthcare crisis is so severe and so urgent that I cannot, in my conscience, support a temporary funding bill that fails to address the healthcare problem." House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries added that if the Senate-passed bill does not include an extension of the ACA tax credit, "we will fight the Republican spending plan with all our might in the House."
The Senate just passed a Democratic filibuster by a 60-40 vote, allowing the continuing resolution to proceed to the next step. The continuing resolution only needs a simple majority (51 votes) to pass. If the bill passes the Senate, it will then return to the House for a vote and ultimately be signed into law by Trump.
Economic and stock market shocks
Boosted by progress in Senate negotiations, U.S. stock futures rose slightly on the evening of the 9th local time, with the S&P 500... The S&P 500 futures rose 0.6%, and the Nasdaq... 100 futures rose 1%.
However, the uncertainty brought about by the shutdown continues to loom over the market. Several key economic indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and employment data, have been forced to postpone their release. The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shows that American consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest point in more than three years, only slightly above the historical low.
The US government shutdown further exacerbated anxiety in the stock market, compounded by concerns about artificial intelligence. Concerns over overvaluation of concept stocks intensified, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling 3% over the past week, marking its worst weekly performance since the sell-off triggered by the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" in April; the S&P 500 Index fell 1.6%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.2%.
Furthermore, the shutdown has severely impacted the aviation industry. Several major U.S. airlines have been forced to cut flight schedules. According to data from flight tracking website FlightAware, thousands of domestic and international flights to and from the U.S. were canceled on Sunday. Southwest Airlines... Delta Air Lines cancels more than 250 flights United Airlines cuts more than 450 flights It is estimated that a total of 600 flights will be canceled by Tuesday. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy previously warned that if the shutdown continues, the cancellation rate during Thanksgiving could rise further to 20%.
Harvard University public policy and finance expert Linda Bilmes stated that the shutdown was not only a direct product of political conflict, but also exposed structural flaws in the US budget system. The fragmentation of the congressional budget structure is at the heart of the problem. While the Congressional Budget and Withholding Control Act of 1974 restored Congress's fiscal control, it also led to cumbersome and inefficient budget processes and a highly decentralized system of authority and responsibility.
Bilms concluded, "The current shutdown is no longer just about budget disagreements; it's a battle of political loyalty." She stated that Republicans are closely following the president's lead, while Democrats want to defend their core policy legacies, such as the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid. In this context, budget negotiations have transcended fiscal issues and evolved into a battleground of ideology and partisan positions.
She believes, "The cost of a government shutdown goes far beyond the surface losses. Agency closures, frozen contracts, service disruptions—all of this ultimately falls on taxpayers, who pay the price for the political gridlock." Since 1974, the United States has experienced 23 formal shutdowns and hundreds of near-shutdowns. She stated, "It's like preparing for a hurricane that may never come; we invest huge sums, but we can't make up for the actual damage."
(Article source: CBN)
