After the market closed on Wednesday Eastern Time (Thursday morning Beijing Time), Nvidia... Nvidia is about to release its third-quarter earnings report. As a leading stock in the AI field, Nvidia 's earnings report not only reflects the company's own growth potential but is also widely regarded by the market as a bellwether for the development of the AI industry, and is likely to trigger a chain reaction in the stock prices of AI concept stocks worldwide.
Despite being a top performer in the AI industry, Nvidia's financial performance over the past two years has never disappointed. However, with growing concerns about an AI bubble in the US stock market, it remains to be seen whether Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang can dispel market anxieties and restore market confidence. This is something that industry investors should pay close attention to.
Another perfect score?
In fact, almost no analyst would give a pessimistic forecast for Nvidia's financial report data itself - looking back at Nvidia's performance over the past 10 fiscal quarters, Nvidia's profit performance has exceeded market expectations in every single one of them .
Nvidia consistently delivers impeccable financial reports, leaving analysts in awe of its unimaginable profitability.
And this Wednesday's earnings report is likely to be no exception: According to analysts surveyed by LSEG, Nvidia's earnings per share for the third fiscal quarter (ending in October) are expected to reach $1.25, with revenue of $54.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 56%.
Analysts are also expecting Nvidia to provide guidance for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2025 (ending in January next year), with revenue projected to reach $61.44 billion, which would suggest that its growth rate could accelerate again.
Analysts at Jefferies and Wedbush have both stated in recent reports that they expect Nvidia to "report better-than-expected earnings and raise its guidance."
"Third-quarter hyperscale capital expenditure results generally exceeded expectations," Wedbush analysts wrote. "More importantly, large hyperscale enterprises almost universally indicated they expect spending trends to increase in the future as they continue to expand investments to support their AI initiatives."
Wedbush analysts said that, according to Microsoft Alphabet and Amazon The increased spending by "hyperscale enterprises" seems to have largely flowed to Nvidia. Against this backdrop, it's highly unlikely that Nvidia's financial figures will be bad.
Could Huang Jen-hsun be giving more hints?
It's worth noting that Nvidia typically provides guidance for the next quarter in its earnings reports. However, during the earnings call, Jensen Huang is likely to provide hints about the company's backlog and overall outlook for 2026 , and every word he utters will be closely watched—as this not only concerns Nvidia's own development prospects but also influences the outlook for the entire technology industry.
Currently, analysts surveyed by LSEG predict that Nvidia's total revenue will reach $286.7 billion in 2026.
In fact, Jensen Huang had already given a hint about Nvidia's revenue next year last month . Huang revealed at Nvidia's GTC conference in October that the total order value for AI core chips in 2025 and 2026 has reached $500 billion.
Over the past four years, Nvidia's quarterly revenue has grown by nearly 600%. Jensen Huang's remarks in October indicate that Nvidia is confident in the growth of its next-generation chip cycle—although the growth rate may slow, which also suggests potential growth in artificial intelligence. The craze still has room to grow.
It is worth mentioning that the revenue data mentioned by Jensen Huang covers revenue from 2025 to date, Nvidia's current Blackwell GPU sales, Rubin GPU sales next year, and sales of network equipment and related accessories.
After analyzing the details of Jensen Huang's speech, analysts concluded that his statement meant that Nvidia's revenue in 2026 would be significantly higher than Wall Street's previous expectations.
“Nvidia’s disclosures suggest that its revenue is on track to far exceed current market expectations,” wrote Chris Cassel, an analyst at Wolf Research, in a November report. Cassel estimated, based on data provided by Jensen Huang, that Nvidia’s data center revenue… The company's 2026 revenue could be $60 billion higher than previous market forecasts. He gave Nvidia stock a rating equivalent to "buy".
Has the AI industry over-spending?
Despite the encouraging order numbers provided by Jensen Huang, Nvidia's recent stock performance has not reflected this optimism: since Huang announced the order numbers on October 28, Nvidia's stock price has fallen by 5% to date.
This phenomenon reflects the ongoing debate among investors about the artificial intelligence boom—while large companies, led by the "Big Seven" such as Google, Microsoft , and Meta, are still investing heavily in developing large-scale cloud services and AI labs, investors are concerned that these giants may have overspent on infrastructure.
Therefore, during the earnings call, investors will want Jensen Huang to answer questions such as whether there is a bubble in the AI industry and whether Nvidia's downstream customers have overspent. Of course, judging from Huang's past statements, he should answer "NO".
“The growth in hyperscale corporate capital expenditures reflects the ‘never-ending demand’ in the field of artificial intelligence,” Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schaffer wrote in a report earlier this month. He also gave Nvidia stock a “buy” rating.
Bank of America Analysts say they expect Nvidia executives to reassure investors of its ability to meet demand, highlight the company’s strong earnings growth prospects, and dispel doubts and concerns surrounding AI spending.
Nvidia's strategic partnerships and investments
This quarter, Nvidia has been very active in strategic partnerships and investments, and analysts are looking forward to Jensen Huang providing details on these collaborations during the conference call.
The largest of these deals involved Nvidia agreeing to invest up to $10 billion in equity in OpenAI (an artificial intelligence research lab), in exchange for OpenAI purchasing 4 to 5 million Nvidia GPUs over the next few years.
In addition, Nvidia also agreed to provide funding to its former rival Intel. With a $5 billion investment, the two chipmakers will collaborate to improve the compatibility of Intel chips with Nvidia GPUs.
In late October of this year, Nvidia announced a $1 billion investment in Nokia. The two companies will collaborate to integrate Nvidia's GPUs into Nokia 's cellular network hardware. Meanwhile, Nvidia continues to invest in various startups.
Citigroup In a November report, analyst Atif Malik noted that Nvidia’s strategic partnerships—particularly the deal with OpenAI—would be the focus of investors’ attention on Wednesday.
“Despite market concerns about the debt and revolving financing composition of the AI capital expenditure bubble, we fundamentally believe that the AI sector remains in a state of undersupply,” Malik wrote. He also gave Nvidia stock a “buy” rating.
Increasingly fierce industry competition issues
Currently, Nvidia holds over 90% of the global AI GPU market share. However, in the past three months, some of its customers have increasingly promoted their own custom-designed semiconductors. — This refers to Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs): For example, Amazon has launched its own Tranium chip, Google has TPU chips, and OpenAI also plans to collaborate with Broadcom. Collaborate on the development of proprietary chips.
Citigroup stated that Jensen Huang typically outlines Nvidia's overall perspective during earnings calls with analysts, and this time he may elaborate on how the company views the increasingly competitive landscape, which is exactly the information investors are looking for.
Challenges facing the Chinese market
As with previous quarters, the Chinese market is expected to be an unavoidable topic for Jensen Huang during the earnings call.
Amidst a politically risky environment, analysts generally believe that Nvidia faces significant uncertainty in the Chinese market. Data from Bernstein shows that Nvidia's AI chip business in China... Its market share is projected to decline from 66% in 2024 to 54% in 2025, and may further decrease in the future.
In fact, none of the aforementioned Nvidia performance forecasts included sales in the Chinese market, including the $500 billion in orders disclosed by Jensen Huang.
Despite Nvidia launching the H20 chip for the Chinese market, its market share in China has effectively plummeted to zero due to US government export controls. Nvidia executives have recently expressed pessimism about the possibility of achieving substantial sales in China and have yet to announce a successor to the H20 chip.
Judging from the rapid pace of AI chip updates, the H2O chip is gradually becoming obsolete. In fact, major domestic chip developers are rapidly iterating their products. Driven by various incentives, domestic companies are deploying domestically produced AI chips , and analysts predict that this iteration speed will continue or even accelerate further, potentially putting pressure on Nvidia's pricing power.
In late October of this year, when Jensen Huang was asked whether he hoped to sell the current Blackwell series chips to China, he replied, "I hope so, but that's a decision for President Trump to make."
Whether Huang Jen-hsun will discuss the company's prospects in the Chinese market in detail during the earnings conference after the market closes on Wednesday will be a key focus for investors.
Dongcai Illustrated Guide: Some Useful Tips
(Article source: CLS)
