①Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes that without Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies, the US inflation rate could have remained at a low level;② Zandi points out that the current US inflation rate is close to 3%, far exceeding the target, and is expected to rise further to nearly 3.5% next year;③ US Treasury Secretary Bessant said that prices are still under control and expects tax cuts next year to improve the economy's resilience.
Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi points out that the situation would be completely different today if President Trump hadn't taken radical measures on trade and immigration this year.
Zandi pointed out on social media on Sunday (November 23) that prices have risen sharply since the pandemic began and are still climbing at an alarming rate, putting the United States in an affordability crisis.
The economist pointed out, "Currently, consumer price inflation is close to 3%, far above the Federal Reserve's inflation target, and there are indications that future inflation will be even higher, which could have been avoided."
Inflation continues to rise rapidly
While the U.S. inflation rate has fallen significantly since peaking at 9% in 2022, it has continued to climb annually since Trump imposed global tariffs in April.
The latest data released last month by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the overall consumer price index rose 3% in September compared to the same period last year, a significant acceleration from the 2.3% annual growth rate in April.
In contrast, in April, the inflation rate had been trending downward and was expected to fall back to the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%.
In response, Zandi pointed out that "higher tariffs, stricter immigration policies, and a broader trend toward deglobalization have altered this expectation, and inflation appears likely to remain high for the foreseeable future."
He added, " Qualcomm" Inflation, a sluggish job market, rising unemployment, and slowing wage growth all combine to mean that the difficult economic situation faced by low- and middle-income Americans will continue.
Zandi also predicts that inflation will rise further to nearly 3.5% next year, before moderating but remaining above 3% . In contrast, without Trump's tariffs and under normal immigration conditions, Zandi believes inflation will remain around 2.25% by 2026.
Bessant: Prices remain under control
However, the Trump administration has consistently maintained that prices remain under control. On Sunday, Treasury Secretary Bessant insisted in an interview that inflation has not worsened since April. He emphasized that imported goods have not caused inflation; rather, the service sector, less affected by tariffs, is driving the inflationary process.
Bessant also stated that lower energy prices should help alleviate pressure in other sectors, while the trade agreements reached by Trump with major economies will further reduce the prices of other goods in the coming weeks and months.
At the same time, Bessant stated that under the "Big and Beautiful" Act, taxes will be reduced next year, which will increase Americans' real income and thus improve overall economic affordability.
“I am very, very optimistic about 2026. We have laid the foundation for a strong, inflation-free economic growth.”
(Article source: CLS)
