The third estimate
U.S. real gross domestic product increased at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s third estimate published September 30. That was an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point from the second estimate. The quarter covered April, May and June.
The BEA said the revision primarily reflected upward revisions to investment, consumer spending and government spending. Its revised first-quarter growth rate was 2.5%. The second-quarter figure is an annualized rate, not a statement that the economy grew 2.2% between the first and second quarters.
How to read an annual rate
Annualization expresses the quarterly pace as though it continued for a year, allowing a consistent way to compare quarterly rates. It does not mean that the economy actually grew at that pace for a full year, or that the pace will continue. Real GDP adjusts output for price changes, unlike current-dollar GDP.
GDP measures the value of final goods and services produced within the United States. It is broad, but it is not a direct measure of household well-being, the distribution of income or the experience of every business. A positive national growth rate can coexist with different outcomes across regions and industries.
What contributed to growth
The BEA identified consumer spending, investment and exports as contributors to the increase. Imports also increased; imports are subtracted in the GDP calculation because the spending components can include goods and services produced abroad. An increase in imports is not, by itself, a complete explanation of domestic economic conditions.
From an industry perspective, real value added increased 2.5% for private services-producing industries and 2.3% for private goods-producing industries, the agency said. Government value added increased less than 0.1%. These figures use the agency’s industry measures and should not be confused with the total GDP growth rate.
Revisions and timing
GDP estimates are updated as more complete source data become available. A revision is a normal feature of economic measurement, not evidence that the earlier estimate was intended as a final count. Even the third estimate can be revised later in annual or comprehensive updates.
The BEA listed October 29, 2026 as the scheduled date for its advance third-quarter estimate. This article reports the September 30 second-quarter release; it does not assert the result or availability of that later release. Readers should check the BEA for subsequent estimates and the definitions behind them.
Why estimates change
The advance, second and third estimates draw on progressively more complete information. Source data for some components arrive after the initial estimate, and agencies may revise earlier data as their surveys and administrative records improve. In this report, the third estimate’s upward revision was associated primarily with investment, consumer spending and government spending. That does not imply that every component was revised upward or that growth was evenly distributed across the economy. The BEA also publishes current-dollar measures and price indexes, which help separate changes in nominal spending from changes in inflation-adjusted output. For comparisons, readers should keep the reference quarter, annualization and adjustment method consistent. The published estimate is a useful aggregate view, while later revisions and more detailed data can add context to that view.
Key points in the report
- Real GDP grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter.
- The third estimate was 0.7 percentage point above the second.
- The next scheduled release concerned the third quarter.
Sources and scope
Read the BEA third GDP estimate and the BEA GDP data page for the underlying figures and definitions. This article describes the specified reporting period; subsequent releases may change the picture.