After the recent rollercoaster ride of US tech stocks, the market has begun to realize that while concerns about an AI bubble are not entirely unfounded, market confidence in the future of AI has not been extinguished.
This means that artificial intelligence The market landscape in the technology sector may still be evolving. Investors are no longer blindly embracing all "AI concept stocks," but are becoming more cautious and starting to examine which companies are more likely to become the real winners in the AI field in 2026.
The market began to carefully examine and select.
Recently, the performance of US tech stocks has been particularly volatile.
At the beginning of last week, due to market expectations for Oracle... In data center Increased concerns about funding and construction delays at CoreWeave have impacted market confidence in AI- related companies. However, Micron Technology... Following the release of strong earnings reports, US AI technology stocks rebounded significantly.
Nomura Securities In his report, equity derivatives analyst Charlie McElligott wrote:
"I do think the concerns about this topic are very reasonable. As the market now begins to undergo a 'surgical' examination, we are finally seeing a proper differentiation of 'winners and losers,' which is a good thing. "
Wall Street strategists point out that loose monetary and fiscal policies, as well as artificial intelligence trading, are the reasons for a stock market rally next year.
"Without considering any individual stock picks, we believe the overall AI story remains solid," wrote Ulrich Hoffmann-Buchradi of UBS Global Wealth Management in a report last week.
The company expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, up 13% from last Friday's level.
She added, "We see no signs of an investment bubble, and overall, the company's fundamentals remain strong."
Will US AI stocks experience a stark contrast next year?
Micron's earnings report last week showed that its first-quarter revenue and earnings per share both exceeded Wall Street's expectations, thanks to demand driven by artificial intelligence.
McGregor believes that Micron's "significant increase" in profits this time can be compared to Nvidia's performance in May 2023. The announced results were comparable: Nvidia 's strong results at the time caused a sensation on Wall Street and fueled the rise of the entire artificial intelligence craze.
However, while Micron is highly sought after, Oracle is facing a dismal reception: last week, a report that Blue Owl Capital would not support Oracle 's $10 billion data center project caused a sharp drop in Oracle's stock price. Although Oracle later clarified the situation, investors remain concerned about potential financing risks in the field of artificial intelligence.
In fact, this situation of "two extremes" is likely to continue next year.
Goldman Sachs Analysts predict that S&P 500 earnings will grow by more than 12% in 2026, primarily driven by the top seven stocks in the index. These stocks include Nvidia and Apple. , Microsoft Google, Amazon Broadcom And Meta. Together, they account for about a quarter of the index's profits.
In contrast, the average gain of the "Big Seven" U.S. tech companies, which investors have been closely watching this year, is 21%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 16%.
The winners and losers next year will be different from this year.
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said he expects the winners and losers among U.S. tech giants to be different next year than this year.
In his report, he wrote: "I think we will see some extremely significant divergences. In the next round of developments in this deal, there will be winners and losers within the 'Big Seven.' "
He stated that his favorite stock is Google because Google's Gemini AI product has a promising growth outlook.
He added, "Companies like Oracle aren't actually in a tight financial situation, but their massive investments in artificial intelligence have drawn attention. I think these kinds of companies may face difficulties."
Of course, some Wall Street analysts hold the opposite view of Oracle.
Guggenheim analyst John DiFucci said, "We are so bullish on Oracle because they really have a better 'mouse trap'."
He added, "Their cloud infrastructure is superior to any other company. They offer better performance, lower costs, and still remain profitable."
(Article source: CLS)
