U.S. stocks are experiencing a bleak November, with next week being the last week of the month and markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Given the continued weakness of the previous weeks, a decline this month was almost inevitable; however, a rise next week would boost confidence amid market volatility.
Recently, investor concerns about the overvaluation of tech stocks have persisted, even regarding artificial intelligence . (AI) leader Nvidia A strong earnings report failed to completely dispel doubts. Furthermore, thwarted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut also put pressure on the market.
Although the S&P 500 is still up 11% this year, it has fallen more than 5% from its record high at the end of October. The Nasdaq, dominated by technology stocks, has fallen for three consecutive weeks.
The release of a large backlog of data in the coming weeks could further exacerbate market volatility, as investors will need to assess the health of the economy and whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting.
Key U.S. economic data next week includes September retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Tuesday, and September durable goods orders on Wednesday. These data were originally scheduled for release in October but were postponed due to the recent federal government shutdown.
With the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announcing that it will not release a full October non-farm payroll report, and the November report will be postponed until December 16 (six days after the end of the Federal Reserve meeting), the importance of next Wednesday's weekly initial jobless claims data may increase.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book (an overview of current economic conditions) will also be released next Wednesday.
In other overseas regions, the UK's autumn budget, scheduled for release next Wednesday, will be the focus of market attention. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves is expected to announce tax increases to repair public finances, but the specific measures remain unclear due to previous reports that the UK government may abandon the income tax hike.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the interest rate decisions of the central banks of New Zealand and Korea will be the focus.
With Nvidia releasing its quarterly report this week, the Q3 earnings season for US stocks is drawing to a close. Next week, several Chinese companies listed in the US will release their Q3 results, with Alibaba being a key focus for the market. The company will release its earnings report before the market opens on Tuesday.
(Key Takeaways from Next Week's Earnings Reports)
Beyond economic data, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has recently reached a significant turning point. The United States has submitted a peace plan to Ukraine, but both Ukraine and the European Union have expressed dissatisfaction with it.
However, US President Trump has stated that Thursday the 27th is the deadline for Ukraine to accept the US-backed peace plan.
Overview of major overseas economic events next week (Beijing time):
Monday (November 24): US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index, Germany November IFO Business Climate Index
Tuesday (November 25): US September retail sales, Germany's final Q3 unadjusted GDP annual rate, UK November CBI retail sales difference, US September FHFA house price index month-on-month, US September S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index year-on-year unadjusted
Wednesday (November 26): US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22, US November Chicago PMI, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announces budget plan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces interest rate decision.
Thursday (November 27): The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book, Germany's December GfK Consumer Confidence Index, the Eurozone's November Economic Sentiment Index, the European Central Bank releases the minutes of its October monetary policy meeting, and the Bank of Korea announces its interest rate decision.
Friday (November 28): Japan's October unemployment rate, France/Germany's November CPI, France's third-quarter GDP
(Article source: CLS)
