① Goldman Sachs The report shows that despite record high gold prices, gold holdings by US private investors have not increased significantly; Goldman Sachs believes that more investors may include gold in their portfolios, and for every 1 basis point increase in the proportion of gold in a portfolio, the price of gold will rise by about 1.4%; The bank also predicts that the price of gold will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, and may even be higher.
Despite gold prices hitting record highs, the amount of gold held by private investors in the United States has not changed significantly—a conclusion drawn from an analysis report released by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs on Wednesday (December 10).
The continued rise in gold prices has dominated headlines this year, yet US investors have barely increased their gold holdings. According to Goldman Sachs' latest assessment, this suggests that gold prices still have room to rise further.
The report shows that since the introduction of gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the mid-2000s, the proportion of gold ETFs held by U.S. private investors is still 6 basis points lower than its peak in 2012. As of the second quarter of this year, gold ETFs accounted for only 0.17% of U.S. private financial portfolios—a negligible fraction of the approximately $112 trillion in stock and bond assets held by U.S. households.
In response, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote that the reason for the low gold allocation among US investors is simple: "Over the past decade, portfolio growth has outpaced the growth of gold prices and trading volumes."
Despite gold prices hitting a record high in 2025, Goldman Sachs analysis still shows that this surge has not translated into a significant increase in actual holdings by U.S. investors.
There will be more buying.
Goldman Sachs data shows that less than half of the large U.S. institutions managing over $100 million in assets hold shares in gold ETFs. Those institutions that do hold such shares typically allocate between 0.1% and 0.5%.
For major long-term investors, only about 0.2% of their portfolios are in gold assets.
Furthermore, the report also points out that compared to the inflows into gold ETFs, physical gold demand in the United States is negligible. So far this year, physical gold demand has been only 110,000 to 150,000 tons, while net ETF purchases have reached approximately 4 million tons.
Clearly, the low holding ratio shown in Goldman Sachs' report stands in stark contrast to the recommendations previously given by major authoritative institutions.
Including Citibank UBS Group Morgan Stanley BlackRock Both John D. Smith and Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, have advised investors to include gold in their portfolios. Clearly, there's a gap between these recommendations and reality, which is precisely what Goldman Sachs believes could drive further increases in gold prices.
Further rise
The bank estimates that gold in the US financial sector... For every 1 basis point (0.01 percentage point) increase in the proportion of gold in the portfolio, the price of gold will rise by approximately 1.4%.
Goldman Sachs believes that if households or institutions can substantially increase their gold holdings as a means of risk diversification, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the global macroeconomic situation, including concerns about the fiscal outlook, then these inflows could "significantly push up" prices in the smaller gold market.
The bank predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 by the end of 2026, but also states that this forecast carries a "significant upside risk" if private sector purchases exceed those of central banks, which have dominated demand in recent years.
In late October, spot gold prices reached a record high of $4,400 per ounce before falling back to around $4,220 per ounce. Year-to-date, gold prices have risen by 60%.
(Article source: CLS)
