The United Nations has released its latest global economic growth forecast, predicting that the global economy will grow by 2.7% this year, slightly lower than the 2.8% projected at the beginning of 2025, citing increased US tariffs, increased global economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement on Thursday that the intertwined economic, geopolitical, and technological competition is reshaping the global landscape and creating new economic uncertainties and social vulnerabilities.
Meanwhile, the United Nations predicts that the global economic growth rate will rise slightly to 2.9% in 2027. However, this is still far below the average growth rate of 3.2% between 2010 and 2019, although the COVID-19 pandemic had not yet impacted the global economy at that time.
UN economists also pointed out that while tariffs have had an impact globally, economies have shown unexpected resilience, thanks to strong consumer spending and slowing inflation. However, underlying weaknesses remain, with sluggish investment and limited fiscal space dampening economic activity, increasing the risk that global economic growth may continue to fall below pre-pandemic levels.
Stable but uneven growth
Regionally, the United Nations expects economic growth in Europe, Japan, and the United States to remain generally stable, while some large developing economies such as China, India, and Indonesia are expected to be more robust and maintain steady growth. However, the outlook for some low-income and economically vulnerable countries is less optimistic.
The United Nations predicts that the US economy will grow slightly to 2%, Japan will grow by 0.9% this year, and the EU will grow by 1.4%. Private consumption in Japan is expected to gradually recover, but exports may continue to be constrained by higher US tariffs and policy uncertainty, while the EU will suffer similar negative impacts.
East Asia's economic growth rate is projected to reach 4.4%, lower than the 4.9% projected for 2025, as the boost from export growth in the early part of 2025 gradually weakens. However, the United Nations believes that market confidence in China has been further stabilized due to the temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States.
South Asia's economy is projected to grow by 5.6% this year, down from 5.9% in 2025. India's economy is expected to grow by 6.6%, primarily driven by strong consumption and substantial public investment. West Asia's GDP is projected to grow by 4.1%, up from 3.4% in 2025, but the region still faces geopolitical tensions and security risks.
African economic growth will be more moderate, potentially reaching 4% this year, but the region will be threatened by high debt and climate-related shocks. Latin America and the Caribbean will generally perform robustly, with economic growth slightly declining from 2.4% last year to 2.3% this year, before rebounding slightly to 2.5% in 2027.
The United Nations also warned that the rapid development of artificial intelligence has driven robust capital expenditure in a few large markets. However, the potential benefits of AI are likely to be unevenly distributed, exacerbating existing structural inequalities.
