Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 on Thursday, as international copper prices rose rapidly.
In a recent research report released on January 8, Goldman Sachs' commodities research team, led by analyst Eoin Dinsmore, pointed out that copper prices have experienced dramatic fluctuations over the past month, surging from less than $11,000 per ton at the end of November to a high of $13,387 on January 6, an increase of 22%.
In response to this surge, Goldman Sachs believes that copper prices have exceeded its perceived fair fundamental level of approximately $11,400 per ton.
Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs raised its first-half copper price forecast from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, citing a “scarcity premium” in the copper market due to limited inventories outside the United States .
However, Goldman Sachs maintained its copper price forecast of $11,200 per ton for the fourth quarter of 2026 and expects copper prices to struggle to remain above $13,000.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.5% to $12,702 a tonne on Thursday. The contract had hit a record high of $13,387.50 a tonne on Tuesday.
On July 30 last year, US President Trump signed a proclamation announcing that starting August 1, only semi-finished products such as copper pipes, copper wires, and cables, as well as copper-intensive manufactured products, would be subject to a 50% tariff, but refined copper, which is the mainstream of international trade, including cathode copper and anode copper, would be exempted.
However, concerns about tariffs on refined copper have not completely disappeared. Traders are accelerating copper shipments to the United States ahead of the new tariffs, fearing the Trump administration might expand the scope of copper import tariffs.
Driven by concerns over US tariff policies, copper inventories on the COMEX exchange in New York continued to rise, while those on the London Metal Exchange declined. This divergence in inventory levels exacerbated the risk of tighter refined copper supplies outside the US.
However, Goldman Sachs also pointed out that the tariff-related announcements to be released by the United States in the second quarter of this year may mark the end of the US copper inventory accumulation cycle, at which time the market's focus will return to the fundamentals of oversupply in the global copper market .
The U.S. Department of Commerce is required to submit an updated report on the domestic copper market by June 30, 2026, to determine whether to impose a 15% general tariff on refined copper starting in 2027 and a 30% general tariff starting in 2028.
