Goldman Sachs The company raised its 2026 copper price forecast, citing the continued high risk of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which will continue to support copper prices.
Goldman Sachs raises copper price forecast
In a report released on Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 average copper price forecast from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 , and expects that the copper import tariff policy, which has been a long-standing concern in the market, may be implemented in 2027.
Since the beginning of this year, tariffs have been a significant factor disrupting the stability of the copper market. In February, US President Trump announced tariffs on copper, shocking the market and causing US copper prices to surge. US traders began buying and stockpiling copper in advance, pushing US copper imports to a record high, leading to a continuous rise in COMEX copper futures prices in New York and a widening price gap with the international benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures prices.
By late July, US copper prices had gradually stabilized. Then, in August, the US government's 50% import tariff did not include refined copper, providing temporary relief to the market.
However, while shelving the policy, the US government has repeatedly hinted that tariffs will still be implemented in the future. This means that the copper tariff issue is still under active scrutiny, and therefore the policy risk remains high.
Goldman Sachs estimates there is a 55% chance that the Trump administration will announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026. The policy is expected to take effect in 2027 and could potentially rise to 30% in 2028.
The risk of copper tariffs will continue to stimulate stockpiling.
Goldman Sachs stated that expectations of future tariffs are likely to push U.S. copper prices above the London Metal Exchange benchmark, thereby encouraging more stockpiling and tightening supply in non-U.S. markets—currently a key driver of global pricing dynamics.
Goldman Sachs added that structural factors, including stockpiling and trade policy uncertainty, continue to support prices.
Despite raising its 2026 copper price forecast, Goldman Sachs maintained its 2027 copper price forecast at $10,750 per tonne.
Goldman Sachs predicts that copper prices on the London Metal Exchange will fall once tariffs take effect and global markets rebalance. They also raised their forecast for the global copper surplus in 2026 from 160,000 tons to 300,000 tons, reflecting a stronger supply growth trend in the future.
Goldman Sachs' upward revision of its forecast is clearly good news for recent copper prices and miners. However, Goldman Sachs' unchanged forecast for 2027 underscores its belief that downside risks exist if tariffs impact global trade flows and excess supply increases.
(Article source: CLS)
