① Counterpoint Research predicts that global smartphone shipments will decline by 2.1% in 2026 due to memory shortages driving up bill of materials costs; ② Counterpoint analysts predict that the average selling price of smartphones will rise by 6.9% next year, higher than the 3.6% forecast in the firm's September 2025 forecast.
Market research firm Counterpoint Research said on Tuesday (December 16) that global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 2.1% in 2026 due to memory shortages driving up bill of materials costs.
Previously, Counterpoint had projected a "slight increase of 0.45%" in shipments next year, but has now lowered that forecast by as much as 2.6 percentage points. The firm also believes that shipments in 2025 are expected to increase by 3.3% compared to 2024, representing a significant reversal.
Another Counterpoint report, "Memory Solutions for GenAI," indicates that memory prices could rise by 40% by the second quarter of 2026, which would cause smartphone bill of materials costs to increase by 8% to 15% on top of current high levels.
This year, global artificial intelligence The infrastructure boom has boosted the growth of Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology. Suppliers will be prioritized for Nvidia. Waiting for customers to produce more advanced memory chips Rather than basic products.
This directly led to a tight supply of DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) chips—chips widely used in products such as laptops, electric vehicles, medical devices, and home appliances.
It's worth mentioning that Nvidia has also decided to change the memory used in its servers from DDR5 (5th generation Double Data Rate Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory), which is commonly used in servers, to LPDDR5X—the memory used in many flagship mobile phones.
Counterpoint analysts expect the average selling price (ASP) of smartphones to rise 6.9% next year, up from the firm’s September 2025 forecast of 3.6%, due to cost pass-throughs and portfolio restructuring.
Counterpoint Research Director MS Hwang wrote, "What we are seeing right now is that the entry-level mobile phone market (below $200, less than 1,400 yuan) is the hardest hit, with its bill of materials (BOM) costs rising by 20% to 30% since the beginning of the year."
The agency believes that manufacturers with scale, a broad product portfolio (especially in the high-end market), and tight vertical integration will be able to withstand supply shortages.
Senior analyst Yang Wang said, " Apple..." Samsung and others are best positioned to weather the next few quarters. But for other companies that don't have enough room to maneuver in balancing market share and profit margins, the situation will be very difficult.
In recent months, some consumer electronics Manufacturers have warned of potential price increases, and companies like Lenovo have begun stockpiling memory chips . Nintendo's stock price has fallen significantly this month due to market concerns that memory shortages could impact the profitability of its Switch 2.
The report states that mobile phone manufacturers are increasingly adopting mitigation strategies, such as downgrading other components. The agency believes other methods include reusing older components, streamlining product lines, guiding consumers to buy higher-spec versions, or using new designs to incentivize upgrades.
(Article source: CLS)
