① OECD Secretary-General Coleman stated that despite multiple challenges, the global economy remains resilient, with growth projected at around 3.2% this year and slowing to 2.9% next year; ② The AI investment boom is expected to continue, bringing long-term benefits to the global economy, but the risk of overvaluation of some AI assets should be noted.
OECD Secretary-General Matthias Coleman said on Tuesday that despite multiple challenges including tariff increases, geopolitical conflicts, and structural pressures, the global economy as a whole has shown strong resilience; in addition, artificial intelligence, which is driving global economic growth, is also a key driver. The investment boom in (AI) is expected to continue and bring significant economic benefits in the longer term.
In a media interview, Coleman pointed out that the global economy is expected to grow by about 3.2% this year, which, while lower than the long-term historical trend, is still a solid performance in the current complex environment. However, as the supporting factors from the previous period gradually weaken, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 2.9% next year.
Earlier this month, the international organization raised its growth forecasts for several major economies, including the United States. The OECD noted at the time that investment in technology had provided significant support to the economy amid rising global trade uncertainty.
Coleman recently stated that the significant shift in global trade activity at the beginning of the year was a key factor supporting this year's economic performance. Businesses accelerated their import/export and investment pace before the announced tariffs took effect, boosting short-term growth. Meanwhile, large-scale investments in AI by many countries, led by the United States, and continued macroeconomic policy support in many countries, also offset the drag from trade frictions to some extent.
However, Coleman emphasized that the full impact of tariffs has not yet materialized. Current global trade tensions and policy uncertainty remain high and may continue to put pressure on investment and cross-border trade. Furthermore, the long-term economic and fiscal burdens resulting from structural factors such as population aging are gradually increasing, constraining medium- to long-term growth prospects.
On the geopolitical front, Coleman pointed out that the situation in Ukraine remains one of the major uncertainties facing the global economy. Prolonged conflict is detrimental to economic activity, while achieving a just and lasting peace would not only benefit the people of Ukraine and Russia but also significantly boost the global economy. He also stated that the current global tensions and conflicts, if sustained and stable, would help improve the global growth environment.
Regarding artificial intelligence , Coleman believes that AI investment is expected to continue growing for some time to come and will significantly improve productivity in the medium to long term, representing a significant opportunity for the global economy. However, he also cautions that some AI-related assets may be overvalued, and a significant market repricing could impact financial markets and the macroeconomy, posing a downside risk that requires close monitoring.
Regarding monetary policy, Coleman pointed out that the pace of interest rate cuts in major global economies is slowing, with some countries even reverting to raising rates. This comes after Qualcomm... Following inflation, it is reasonable for the central bank to remain cautious. Whether to continue cutting interest rates should depend entirely on the latest economic and inflation data, avoiding excessive easing that could lead to new inflation or financial stability risks.
In response to concerns that the United States might reduce its funding to the OECD, Coleman stated that as a founding member, the US's funding arrangements remain unchanged, and the organization's operations are "as usual." Going forward, the OECD hopes to continue strengthening cooperation with the United States, particularly on AI-related security, reliable supply chains, and other global economic and fiscal policy issues, deepening policy coordination among members.
(Article source: CLS)
