While HBM3E prices continue to climb, leading storage manufacturers have launched a new round of market share battles surrounding HBM4.
According to TheElec, SK Hynix has moved up its mass production schedule for its M15X plant in Cheongju by four months, and will begin mass production of 1b DRAM wafers for HBM4 in February next year. In terms of capacity, the plant is initially planned to produce approximately 10,000 wafers, which is expected to increase to tens of thousands by the end of next year. A source revealed, "Equipment investment and installation are underway, and the plan has been adjusted to achieve faster and larger-scale mass production."
It is worth mentioning that M15X is also known as the "HBM4 dedicated factory". Industry insiders believe that this accelerated production demonstrates SK Hynix's confidence in the supply of HBM4.
To date, SK Hynix has completed the technical preparations for early production of the M15X, including the certification of its 1b HBM4 process. Its HBM4 wafers, employing an improved circuitry, will be manufactured by the end of this month and delivered to Nvidia in early January next year. They delivered the final samples of their next-generation 12-layer HBM4 memory.
Meanwhile, shipment prospects for NVIDIA 's Vera Rubin 200 platform powered by HBM4 are becoming increasingly clear. Market forecasts indicate that NVIDIA's GB300 AI server racks are expected to ship 55,000 units next year, representing a year-on-year increase of 129%. The Vera Rubin 200 platform is expected to begin shipping in the fourth quarter of next year, with some manufacturers' order visibility extending as far as 2027.
Three giants vie for HBM4 market share
To this day, SK Hynix still holds a leading position in the global HBM market.
According to data from market research firm Counterpoint Research, SK Hynix's global HBM revenue market share reached 57% in the third quarter of this year, a slight decline but still better than the same period last year. In comparison, Samsung and Micron's market shares were 22% and 21%, respectively.
However, this existing landscape may be shaken in the future. According to a recent report by South Korea's *Maeil Business Newspaper*, an Nvidia team visited Samsung to discuss the testing progress of their HBM4 system-in-package (SiP). The meeting revealed that Samsung's products achieved the best performance among all memory manufacturers in two key metrics: operating speed and power efficiency.
Based on its outstanding performance, Nvidia has given the green light to supply Samsung with HBM4. It is understood that Nvidia's requested supply of HBM4 from Samsung next year significantly exceeds its internal forecasts. This is expected to have a significant impact on Samsung's performance. A Samsung insider stated, "Unlike with HBM3E, we are in a leading position in HBM4 development."
According to reports, Samsung, considering the expansion speed and production capacity of its P4 production line in Pyeongtaek, will formally sign a supply contract in the first quarter of next year. Formal supply is expected to begin in the second quarter.
In addition, Micron is also involved in the HBM4 competition. Its latest financial report shows that its HBM4 will enter mass production as planned in the second fiscal quarter of 2026, achieving high-yield capacity ramp-up. HBM4 utilizes advanced CMOS and advanced metallization process technologies in its basic logic chips and DRAM core chips, all of which are designed and manufactured by Micron.
Huatai Securities It is pointed out that in 2026, the capital expenditures of the world's three largest memory companies will likely be concentrated on HBM/DRAM. According to TrendForce's forecast, the DRAM bit growth rate may reach 26% in 2026. A memory supercycle is expected to become the semiconductor supercycle in 2026. While it remains an important industry theme, it exhibits structural differentiation, with market demand for Batch ALD equipment, testing equipment, and packaging equipment expected to grow significantly.
(Source: Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily)
