Tesla This may mark the second consecutive year of declining annual deliveries.
On December 29th local time, Tesla unusually released its fourth-quarter delivery forecast through its investor relations website, and for the first time officially compiled a list of investors from Daiwa and Deutsche Bank. Goldman Sachs Barclays Delivery volume forecast data from 20 well-known institutions.
This move is interpreted as a proactive strategy by the company to manage market expectations in advance and cope with potential performance pressure.
According to publicly available forecasts from Tesla , institutions expect it to deliver 422,900 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure represents a decline of approximately 15% compared to the same period in 2024 and is lower than the average estimate of 445,000 vehicles from external institutions such as Bloomberg and FactSet for the fourth quarter of this year, indicating a more pessimistic outlook.
In terms of annual deliveries, the figure is projected to be 1.6408 million vehicles, a decline of nearly 8% compared to 1.789 million vehicles in 2024.
If this prediction comes true, Tesla Tesla is set to see its second consecutive year of declining annual deliveries, with the drop significantly widening. In 2024, Tesla delivered a total of 1.7892 million vehicles, a slight decrease of 1.07% year-on-year, marking the first decline in Tesla's annual vehicle deliveries in over a decade.
It is worth noting that Tesla explicitly stated that it "does not endorse any information, advice or conclusions from analysts" and only presents aggregated data objectively.
Industry analysts generally agree that the phasing out of subsidies and intensified global competition are the root causes of the pressure on Tesla's sales.
The US federal government's $7,500 electric vehicle purchase tax credit expires on September 30, 2025, leading to a rush to buy vehicles in the third quarter to take advantage of the deadline. This directly depleted the actual demand for electric vehicle brands like Tesla in the US market in the fourth quarter. (JPMorgan Chase) It is estimated that this policy adjustment will cause Tesla to lose approximately $1.2 billion in profits annually, equivalent to 17% of its expected profits in 2024.
In terms of competition, in the North American market, traditional automakers such as Chevrolet and Ford are accelerating the launch of affordable electric vehicles, creating direct price competition; the European market is even weaker, with Tesla's new car registrations in November down 11.8% year-on-year, and a cumulative decline of 28% in the first 11 months, reducing its market share to 1.3%. Meanwhile, BYD... As Chinese brands continue to expand their overseas market share and seize market share in Asia and Europe by leveraging their cost-performance advantage, they are further squeezing Tesla's growth space.
Looking at the whole year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk's active statements on politics and public affairs have sparked disagreements among some consumers, and are considered a potential factor contributing to increased sales pressure in some US states and European markets. In the first two quarters of 2025, Tesla's sales experienced a temporary plunge due to these remarks. Although policy incentives provided a brief boost in the third quarter, they failed to reverse the overall downward trend for the year.
However, factors such as Musk's "return" helped Tesla's stock price recover. In the capital markets, despite weak sales expectations, Tesla's stock price is expected to continue its upward trend in 2025, with investors shifting their focus towards autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robots. Emerging businesses are being transferred.
Dan Ives, a renowned analyst at Wedbush Securities , has explicitly defined 2026 as a "critical turning point" for Tesla. He believes that Tesla is transforming from traditional electric vehicle sales to AI, autonomous driving, and robotics businesses, and expects these businesses to significantly impact the company's performance, potentially propelling it toward a $3 trillion market capitalization.
Regarding the automotive business, analysts generally predict that Tesla's sales are expected to gradually recover and grow in 2026, but they are generally "cautiously optimistic." The key to its growth depends on the effectiveness of the promotion of low-priced models, the updating of the product matrix, and policy support in overseas markets.
(Source: The Paper)
