①A NABE survey shows that economists expect the U.S. economy to accelerate slightly next year, but the job market is weak and the Federal Reserve is slowing its pace of interest rate cuts; ②Respondents predict a median U.S. economic growth rate of 2% in 2026, up from 1.8% in October, driven mainly by personal consumption and business investment, but tariff policies are expected to drag down economic growth.
According to a survey released Monday by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), mainstream economists expect U.S. economic growth to pick up slightly next year, but the job market will remain weak, and the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of further interest rate cuts.
The survey, conducted from November 3 to 11, polled 42 professional forecasters. The results showed that the median forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2026 was 2%, up from 1.8% in the October survey and in stark contrast to the 1.3% forecast in June.
The main drivers of growth will come from increased personal consumption and rising business investment, but almost all respondents believe that the Trump administration’s massive tariffs will drag down economic growth by at least 0.25 percentage points or more.
The survey states: "Respondents believe that, in terms of both probability of occurrence and potential impact, the 'tariff shock' is the biggest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook."
In addition, stricter immigration enforcement is also expected to dampen economic growth, while increased productivity is seen as the most likely factor to drive better-than-expected economic performance.
Regarding inflation, economists expect it to fall to 2.9% by the end of this year, slightly lower than the 3% predicted in the October survey; next year it will only decline slightly to 2.6%. Respondents attributed 0.25 to 0.7 percentage points of this decline to the Trump administration's new round of import tariffs.
Job growth is projected to remain at historically low levels, at approximately 64,000 new jobs per month, slightly higher than at the end of this year, but still well below the norm in recent years. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level throughout the year.
Against the backdrop of persistent inflation and only a slight increase in the unemployment rate, respondents believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in December this year, but only by another 50 basis points next year, and that interest rates will gradually approach the level considered to be the "neutral range" of monetary policy.
Analysts point out that while the strengthening of the US economy has brought some optimism to the market, new tariffs could quickly push up costs and disrupt the growth outlook. For stock and bond market investors, changes in trade policy could squeeze corporate profits and hurt consumer spending, while persistent inflation could force the Federal Reserve to slow down interest rate cuts.
(Article source: CLS)
