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Amidst credit growth far exceeding deposit rates and macroeconomic pressures from international markets, analysts predict that the upward trend in deposit interest rates will continue. This development is not only occurring in joint-stock banks but has also spread to state-owned banks, establishing a new interest rate level for the money market.
*Local pressure
According to economic analysts, the core reason for the recent sharp increase in deposit interest rates stems from the significant disparity between the rate of credit growth and the system's ability to mobilize capital.
A report from Rong Viet Securities Joint Stock Company (VDSC) indicates that in the first two months of 2026, while outstanding credit across the banking sector grew by 1.4%, deposits only recorded a modest increase of 0.8%. This gap has created localized liquidity pressure, forcing banks to raise interest rates to attract deposits from the public in order to balance their balance sheets and ensure the capital adequacy ratio (LDR).
In line with this view, MB Securities Joint Stock Company (MBS) believes that the economy's capital needs are entering a new growth cycle, especially the long-term capital needs for public investment projects and key national infrastructure construction, which are the main drivers of economic growth in 2026.
From a macroeconomic perspective, the prolonged high level of international interest rates has created a "barrier" preventing global capital costs from cooling down as initially expected. This indirectly puts pressure on domestic monetary policy management, particularly in stabilizing exchange rates and controlling inflation.
Vietcombank Securities Company Limited (VCBS) believes that the pressure to balance capital sources will remain present as credit growth continues at a high level and the need for public investment disbursement is accelerated. VCBS also notes that in a scenario where global geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, the State Bank of Vietnam's operational space may be narrowed, leading to the possibility of a simultaneous increase in deposit interest rates across all banks, both in speed and scale, to protect the value of the domestic currency.
*The correction wave is spreading.
The market's performance last week clearly demonstrated these predictions, with a wave of strong and simultaneous interest rate adjustments.
Most recently, Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Sacombank) has significantly increased interest rates across all maturities from 6 months and above. Specifically, for online deposits, interest rates for 6-11 month maturities at Sacombank have increased from 6.1-6.3%/year to 6.8-7.2%/year, equivalent to an increase of 0.6-0.9 percentage points. For longer maturities from 24-36 months, the bank's online savings interest rates have reached 7.2-7.6%/year, reflecting a very large demand for long-term capital mobilization.
Not only online, but Sacombank's over-the-counter interest rates also increased by an average of 0.2-0.4 percentage points, with longer-term maturities recording the highest rate at 7.2%/year.
Similarly, Vietnam Prosperity Commercial Bank (VPBank) has also adjusted interest rates upwards three times in just the past half-month, pushing the 12-month term interest rate to 7.1%/year.
Techcombank (Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank) even implemented preferential programs that could push the actual interest rate above 8% per year, while Military Commercial Bank (MB) increased the 12-month term by 1.1% per year to maintain its position among the top banks with high interest rates in the market.
Competition is not limited to traditional banks but has also spread to the digital banking segment and online financial platforms. A prime example is TNEX, a digital platform backed by Vietnam Maritime Commercial Bank (MSB), offering interest rates of up to 8.5% per year for deposits under 300 million VND. This strategy directly targets young customers and office workers who need small savings but demand high interest rates without being constrained by conditions such as billions of VND in balances or excessively long terms.
Among state-owned banks, after a long period of maintaining low interest rates to support businesses, these banks have simultaneously raised interest rates by 0.2-1.2 percentage points across most maturities. Following Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank), Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development (BIDV), and Vietnam Foreign Trade Joint Stock Commercial Bank (Vietcombank), Vietnam Agricultural and Rural Development Bank (Agribank) is the latest name to adjust rates on March 25th. Notably, Agribank sharply increased rates by 0.7% for the 24-month term, bringing the interest rate to 6.7%/year. Meanwhile, BIDV currently leads this group with an online interest rate of up to 6.8%/year.
These fluctuations foreshadow a challenging period for the economy's capital input costs, while also requiring regulators to closely monitor the system's stability to avoid an excessive interest rate race that could impact lending rates and future business recovery.
Forecasting trends for the first half of 2026, ACB Securities (ACBS) believes that the upward trend in deposit interest rates is likely to continue until the exchange rate environment becomes more favorable and geopolitical conflicts subside, helping to stabilize foreign currency flows.
Experts emphasize that, although interest rate increases since the beginning of the year have ranged from 1 to 1.5 percentage points compared to 2025, the market has yet to find a true equilibrium. This pressure will continue to weigh heavily on small and medium-sized private commercial banks, which are heavily dependent on customer deposits and have less flexible funding structures compared to the "big players" in the system.
