① Record-breaking online sales during Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the United States, but analysts warn that this actually hides signs of a fragile U.S. economy; ② Data shows that consumers were more inclined to buy daily necessities during this year's Black Friday, and more people borrowed short-term debt for shopping, indicating anxiety about consumption.
Following the wildly successful Black Friday shopping week, the holiday shopping season in the United States has officially begun. Online sales in the US reached record highs during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but analysts warn that beneath these strong figures lie potential signs of economic vulnerability.
Behind the booming US shopping data
According to data from Adobe Analytics, which tracks online retail data, U.S. consumers spent a record $44.2 billion online during what retailers call the "Black Friday weekend" (from last Friday to this Monday), although comparable sales figures from brick-and-mortar stores have not yet been released.
However, John Mercer, global research director at consumer analytics firm Coresight , said that such record sales figures should be viewed with caution .
He pointed out that the increase in sales was not due to increased consumer spending, but rather to rising product costs— part of which was due to tariffs .
Consumers prefer to buy inexpensive daily necessities
A closer look reveals that signs of anxiety among consumers were ubiquitous during Cyber Monday. (This is according to US retail giant Target. ) and Walmart Shoppers have reduced impulse purchases and are now focusing more on buying discounted everyday necessities.
Meanwhile, Adobe data shows that more consumers are borrowing short-term debt from "buy-as-you-go" service providers this year for shopping, compared to previous years.
Jack Ollie , head of e-commerce insights at consumer intelligence firm Nielsen IQ Jack O'Leary stated that this year, Amazon... Websites and other retailers regarding items such as batteries The significant discounts offered on daily necessities such as cleaning products indicate that consumers are more interested in purchasing everyday essentials at discounted prices.
A survey by market research firm Kantar shows that, under pressure from rising prices of goods in the United States, the percentage of American consumers who felt they could afford everyday necessities fell by 4 percentage points year-on-year last month.
In a survey conducted last month by consumer analytics firm CivicScience, more than two-thirds of American shoppers said that tariffs have already affected their shopping behavior, prompting them to either buy gifts earlier or reduce their purchases this holiday season.
“This year’s retail discounts are substantial, indicating that consumers need more incentives than ever before to spend… Emotions reflect anxiety, behavior reflects competence, and discounts bridge the gap between the two, ” said Kent Smetters, professor of economics at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
Is a potential consumer winter on the horizon?
Julie Craig, vice president of shopping insights at Kantar, said that while the spending data from this year's "Black Friday" may not indicate an impending recession in the U.S. economy, it does suggest a "gradual deterioration" in the financial situation of American households.
Clayder pointed out that their company's research results show that the proportion of American shoppers with enough savings to cope with emergencies is declining year by year.
Royal Bank of Canada Analysts reached a similar conclusion in a report last month. They found that low- and middle-income consumers in the United States have been "drained," and that the reason why U.S. retail spending data had remained stable was largely due to advance consumption in the months leading up to the tariff costs.
Experts say that the weakness in U.S. consumer spending is more likely to become apparent after the holiday shopping season at the end of this year, as U.S. consumers will face more direct impacts from stressors in the new year, such as tariff costs, the recent U.S. government shutdown, and the suspension of related supplemental nutrition assistance benefits.
“This paints a picture of increasingly anxious consumers who may make large purchases at once and then cut back on spending afterward,” Craig said.
(Article source: CLS)
